| Description |
Marsh migration potential in the Chesapeake Bay (CB) salt marshes is calculated in terms of available migration area for each marsh unit defined by Ackerman and others (2022). The space available for landward migration is based on the NOAA marsh migration predictions under 2.0 feet of local sea-level rise (SLR). The migration space is further divided by National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) Plus catchments before assigning related catchment polygons to each marsh unit. The migration rates are then calculated using present day estimates at the prescribed rate of SLR, which correspond to the 0.3, 0.5, and 1.0 meter increase in Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) scenarios by 2100 from Sweet and others (2022). Through scientific efforts, the U.S. Geological Survey has been expanding national assessment of coastal change hazards and forecast products to coastal wetlands, including the Chesapeake Bay salt marshes, with the intent of providing Federal, State, and local managers with tools to estimate the vulnerability and ecosystem service potential of these wetlands. For this purpose, the response and resilience of coastal wetlands to physical factors need to be assessed in terms of the ensuing change to their vulnerability and ecosystem services. Marsh migration is one of the natural responses to SLR. References: Ackerman, K.V., Defne, Z., and Ganju, N.K., 2022, Geospatial characterization of salt marshes in Chesapeake Bay: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P997EJYB. Sweet, W.V., Hamlington, B.D., Kopp, R.E., Weaver, C.P., Barnard, P.L., Bekaert, D., Brooks, W., Craghan, M., Dusek, G., Frederikse, T., Garner, G., Genz, A.S., Krasting, J.P., Larour, E., Marcy, D., Marra, J.J., Obeysekera, J., Osler, M., Pendleton, M., Roman, D., Schmied, L., Veatch, W., White, K.D., and Zuzak, C., 2022, Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States: Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S. Coastlines. NOAA Technical Report NOS 01. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 111 pp. [More]
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