Simulation of hydrodynamic circulation in Barnegat Bay for the period from 03-01-2012 to 10-01-2012. The bathymetry of the model was based on the National Ocean Service Hydrographic Survey data, and updated with recent bathymetric measurements. At the landward end (western boundary), we specified point sources of freshwater in accordance with USGS streamflow measurements at 7 gauges, and a radiation boundary condition that allows tidal energy to propagate landward. On the seaward end, tidal water level and velocity amplitudes from the ADCIRC tidal database for the North Atlantic were applied. These were supplemented by the subtidal water level and subtidal barotropic velocity from the ESPreSSO model, which covers the Mid-Atlantic Bight at 6-kilometer resolution. At the ocean boundary, a combination of Chapman, Flather, and gradient boundary conditions were used. Salinity and temperature was also supplied by the ESPreSSO model. A radiation condition with nudging on a 6-hour timescale for tracers allowed for relaxation of the model solution relative to the forcing data, which prevented sharp gradients at the seaward boundary and subsequent oscillations in the solution. We applied meteorological forcing from North American Regional Reanalysis at the ocean-atmosphere interface. The bulk flux parameterization routine was used with 3-hour wind velocity, air pressure, long and shortwave radiation, relative humidity, and rain inputs. For more details on the model set up see Defne and Ganju, 2015. Reference: Defne, Zafer, and Ganju, N. K., 2015, Quantifying the residence time and flushing characteristics of a shallow, back-barrier estuary: application of hydrodynamic and particle tracking models, Estuaries and Coasts, 38, 1719-1734. [Also available at https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-014-9885-3.]

The Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST v3.8; Warner and others, 2019; Warner and others, 2010) modeling system was used to simulate ocean circulation, water levels, and waves that occurred during Hurricane Dorian (2019) along the US East coast. Simulations were then further downscaled to focus on the resulting inundation, dune overtopping, and barrier island breaching during the storm along North Core Banks, NC. Simulations were performed with coupled and concurrent ocean and wave models simulated on a series of refined, cascading grids. The largest scale grids covered the entire US east coast (5km resolution), and subsequent grids downscaled to the Carolinas region (700m resolution), then to Pamlico Sound (250m resolution). Results on these grids were analyzed to investigate bay-scale dynamics of oceanic conditions. Results were further used to drive a coastal scale grid that stretched approximately 1.5 km in the alongshore and 4km in the cross-shore directions to cover a region of several breaches along North Core Banks. This nearshore grid had cross-shore resolution that varied from 10 m to 2m across the barrier island and was 1.5m in the alongshore direction. Several simulations on this smallest scale grid were performed to investigate sediment grain size (coarse and fine) and effects of vegetation included or excluded yes vegetation and no vegetation) on the breaching processes. Surface atmospheric forcings were obtained from the NOAA Rapid Refresh v4 (Dowell and others; https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/) atmospheric analysis and included surface winds, pressure, relative humidity, and air temperature at ~13 km spatial resolution. For the smallest grid, four simulations were performed: coarse sediment and yes vegetation (CSYV), coarse sediment no vegetation (CSNV), fine sediment and yes vegetation (FSYV), and fine sediment no vegetation (FSNV). The sediment on the seafloor was initialized with a uniform 10m thick distribution. The coarse sediment had an erosion rate of 0.050 kg/m2/s; mean grain size of 0.40 mm, settling velocity of 47 mm/s, and a 0.22 N/m2 critical threshold of erosion. The fine sediment had an erosion rate of 0.025 kg/m2/s; mean grain size of 0.25 mm, settling velocity of 27 mm/s, and a 0.19 N/m2 critical threshold of erosion. Reference cited: Dowell, D. C., Alexander, C.R., James, E.P., Weygandt, S.S., Benjamin, S.G., Manikin, G.S., Blake, B.T., Brown, J.M., Olson, J.B., Hu, M., Smirnova, T.G., Ladwig, T., Kenyon, J.S., Ahmadov, R., Turner, D.D., Duda, J.D., and Alcott, T.I., 2022, The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): An Hourly Updating Convection-Allowing Forecast Model. Part I: Motivation and System Description: Wea. Forecasting, 37, 1371–1395, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0151.1. Warner, J.C., Armstrong, Brandy, He, Ruoying, and Zambon, J.B., 2010, Development of a coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system: Ocean Modelling, v. 35, issue 3, p. 230-244. Warner, J.C., Ganju, N.K., Sherwood, C.R., Kalra, T.S., Aretxabaleta, A., He, R., Zambon, J., and Kumar, N., 2019, Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System: U.S. Geological Survey Software Release, 23 April 2019, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9NQUAOW.

The Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST v3.8; Warner and others, 2019; Warner and others, 2010) modeling system was used to simulate ocean circulation, water levels, and waves that occurred during Hurricane Dorian (2019) along the US East coast. Simulations were then further downscaled to focus on the resulting inundation, dune overtopping, and barrier island breaching during the storm along North Core Banks, NC. Simulations were performed with coupled and concurrent ocean and wave models simulated on a series of refined, cascading grids. The largest scale grids covered the entire US east coast (5km resolution), and subsequent grids downscaled to the Carolinas region (700m resolution), then to Pamlico Sound (250m resolution). Results on these grids were analyzed to investigate bay-scale dynamics of oceanic conditions. Results were further used to drive a coastal scale grid that stretched approximately 1.5 km in the alongshore and 4km in the cross-shore directions to cover a region of several breaches along North Core Banks. This nearshore grid had cross-shore resolution that varied from 10 m to 2m across the barrier island and was 1.5m in the alongshore direction. Several simulations on this smallest scale grid were performed to investigate sediment grain size (coarse and fine) and effects of vegetation included or excluded yes vegetation and no vegetation) on the breaching processes. Surface atmospheric forcings were obtained from the NOAA Rapid Refresh v4 (Dowell and others; https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/) atmospheric analysis and included surface winds, pressure, relative humidity, and air temperature at ~13 km spatial resolution. For the smallest grid, four simulations were performed: coarse sediment and yes vegetation (CSYV), coarse sediment no vegetation (CSNV), fine sediment and yes vegetation (FSYV), and fine sediment no vegetation (FSNV). The sediment on the seafloor was initialized with a uniform 10m thick distribution. The coarse sediment had an erosion rate of 0.050 kg/m2/s; mean grain size of 0.40 mm, settling velocity of 47 mm/s, and a 0.22 N/m2 critical threshold of erosion. The fine sediment had an erosion rate of 0.025 kg/m2/s; mean grain size of 0.25 mm, settling velocity of 27 mm/s, and a 0.19 N/m2 critical threshold of erosion. Reference cited: Dowell, D. C., Alexander, C.R., James, E.P., Weygandt, S.S., Benjamin, S.G., Manikin, G.S., Blake, B.T., Brown, J.M., Olson, J.B., Hu, M., Smirnova, T.G., Ladwig, T., Kenyon, J.S., Ahmadov, R., Turner, D.D., Duda, J.D., and Alcott, T.I., 2022, The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): An Hourly Updating Convection-Allowing Forecast Model. Part I: Motivation and System Description: Wea. Forecasting, 37, 1371–1395, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0151.1. Warner, J.C., Armstrong, Brandy, He, Ruoying, and Zambon, J.B., 2010, Development of a coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system: Ocean Modelling, v. 35, issue 3, p. 230-244. Warner, J.C., Ganju, N.K., Sherwood, C.R., Kalra, T.S., Aretxabaleta, A., He, R., Zambon, J., and Kumar, N., 2019, Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System: U.S. Geological Survey Software Release, 23 April 2019, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9NQUAOW.

The Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST v3.8; Warner and others, 2019; Warner and others, 2010) modeling system was used to simulate ocean circulation, water levels, and waves that occurred during Hurricane Dorian (2019) along the US East coast. Simulations were then further downscaled to focus on the resulting inundation, dune overtopping, and barrier island breaching during the storm along North Core Banks, NC. Simulations were performed with coupled and concurrent ocean and wave models simulated on a series of refined, cascading grids. The largest scale grids covered the entire US east coast (5km resolution), and subsequent grids downscaled to the Carolinas region (700m resolution), then to Pamlico Sound (250m resolution). Results on these grids were analyzed to investigate bay-scale dynamics of oceanic conditions. Results were further used to drive a coastal scale grid that stretched approximately 1.5 km in the alongshore and 4km in the cross-shore directions to cover a region of several breaches along North Core Banks. This nearshore grid had cross-shore resolution that varied from 10 m to 2m across the barrier island and was 1.5m in the alongshore direction. Several simulations on this smallest scale grid were performed to investigate sediment grain size (coarse and fine) and effects of vegetation included or excluded yes vegetation and no vegetation) on the breaching processes. Surface atmospheric forcings were obtained from the NOAA Rapid Refresh v4 (Dowell and others; https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/) atmospheric analysis and included surface winds, pressure, relative humidity, and air temperature at ~13 km spatial resolution. For the smallest grid, four simulations were performed: coarse sediment and yes vegetation (CSYV), coarse sediment no vegetation (CSNV), fine sediment and yes vegetation (FSYV), and fine sediment no vegetation (FSNV). The sediment on the seafloor was initialized with a uniform 10m thick distribution. The coarse sediment had an erosion rate of 0.050 kg/m2/s; mean grain size of 0.40 mm, settling velocity of 47 mm/s, and a 0.22 N/m2 critical threshold of erosion. The fine sediment had an erosion rate of 0.025 kg/m2/s; mean grain size of 0.25 mm, settling velocity of 27 mm/s, and a 0.19 N/m2 critical threshold of erosion. Reference cited: Dowell, D. C., Alexander, C.R., James, E.P., Weygandt, S.S., Benjamin, S.G., Manikin, G.S., Blake, B.T., Brown, J.M., Olson, J.B., Hu, M., Smirnova, T.G., Ladwig, T., Kenyon, J.S., Ahmadov, R., Turner, D.D., Duda, J.D., and Alcott, T.I., 2022, The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): An Hourly Updating Convection-Allowing Forecast Model. Part I: Motivation and System Description: Wea. Forecasting, 37, 1371–1395, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0151.1. Warner, J.C., Armstrong, Brandy, He, Ruoying, and Zambon, J.B., 2010, Development of a coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system: Ocean Modelling, v. 35, issue 3, p. 230-244. Warner, J.C., Ganju, N.K., Sherwood, C.R., Kalra, T.S., Aretxabaleta, A., He, R., Zambon, J., and Kumar, N., 2019, Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System: U.S. Geological Survey Software Release, 23 April 2019, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9NQUAOW.

The Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST v3.8; Warner and others, 2019; Warner and others, 2010) modeling system was used to simulate ocean circulation, water levels, and waves that occurred during Hurricane Dorian (2019) along the US East coast. Simulations were then further downscaled to focus on the resulting inundation, dune overtopping, and barrier island breaching during the storm along North Core Banks, NC. Simulations were performed with coupled and concurrent ocean and wave models simulated on a series of refined, cascading grids. The largest scale grids covered the entire US east coast (5km resolution), and subsequent grids downscaled to the Carolinas region (700m resolution), then to Pamlico Sound (250m resolution). Results on these grids were analyzed to investigate bay-scale dynamics of oceanic conditions. Results were further used to drive a coastal scale grid that stretched approximately 1.5 km in the alongshore and 4km in the cross-shore directions to cover a region of several breaches along North Core Banks. This nearshore grid had cross-shore resolution that varied from 10 m to 2m across the barrier island and was 1.5m in the alongshore direction. Several simulations on this smallest scale grid were performed to investigate sediment grain size (coarse and fine) and effects of vegetation included or excluded yes vegetation and no vegetation) on the breaching processes. Surface atmospheric forcings were obtained from the NOAA Rapid Refresh v4 (Dowell and others; https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/) atmospheric analysis and included surface winds, pressure, relative humidity, and air temperature at ~13 km spatial resolution. For the smallest grid, four simulations were performed: coarse sediment and yes vegetation (CSYV), coarse sediment no vegetation (CSNV), fine sediment and yes vegetation (FSYV), and fine sediment no vegetation (FSNV). The sediment on the seafloor was initialized with a uniform 10m thick distribution. The coarse sediment had an erosion rate of 0.050 kg/m2/s; mean grain size of 0.40 mm, settling velocity of 47 mm/s, and a 0.22 N/m2 critical threshold of erosion. The fine sediment had an erosion rate of 0.025 kg/m2/s; mean grain size of 0.25 mm, settling velocity of 27 mm/s, and a 0.19 N/m2 critical threshold of erosion. Reference cited: Dowell, D. C., Alexander, C.R., James, E.P., Weygandt, S.S., Benjamin, S.G., Manikin, G.S., Blake, B.T., Brown, J.M., Olson, J.B., Hu, M., Smirnova, T.G., Ladwig, T., Kenyon, J.S., Ahmadov, R., Turner, D.D., Duda, J.D., and Alcott, T.I., 2022, The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): An Hourly Updating Convection-Allowing Forecast Model. Part I: Motivation and System Description: Wea. Forecasting, 37, 1371–1395, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0151.1. Warner, J.C., Armstrong, Brandy, He, Ruoying, and Zambon, J.B., 2010, Development of a coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system: Ocean Modelling, v. 35, issue 3, p. 230-244. Warner, J.C., Ganju, N.K., Sherwood, C.R., Kalra, T.S., Aretxabaleta, A., He, R., Zambon, J., and Kumar, N., 2019, Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System: U.S. Geological Survey Software Release, 23 April 2019, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9NQUAOW.

The Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST v3.8; Warner and others, 2019; Warner and others, 2010) modeling system was used to simulate ocean circulation, water levels, and waves that occurred during Hurricane Dorian (2019) along the US East coast. Simulations were then further downscaled to focus on the resulting inundation, dune overtopping, and barrier island breaching during the storm along North Core Banks, NC. Simulations were performed with coupled and concurrent ocean and wave models simulated on a series of refined, cascading grids. The largest scale grids covered the entire US east coast (5km resolution), and subsequent grids downscaled to the Carolinas region (700m resolution), then to Pamlico Sound (250m resolution). Results on these grids were analyzed to investigate bay-scale dynamics of oceanic conditions. Results were further used to drive a coastal scale grid that stretched approximately 1.5 km in the alongshore and 4km in the cross-shore directions to cover a region of several breaches along North Core Banks. This nearshore grid had cross-shore resolution that varied from 10 m to 2m across the barrier island and was 1.5m in the alongshore direction. Several simulations on this smallest scale grid were performed to investigate sediment grain size (coarse and fine) and effects of vegetation included or excluded yes vegetation and no vegetation) on the breaching processes. Surface atmospheric forcings were obtained from the NOAA Rapid Refresh v4 (Dowell and others; https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/) atmospheric analysis and included surface winds, pressure, relative humidity, and air temperature at ~13 km spatial resolution. For the smallest grid, four simulations were performed: coarse sediment and yes vegetation (CSYV), coarse sediment no vegetation (CSNV), fine sediment and yes vegetation (FSYV), and fine sediment no vegetation (FSNV). The sediment on the seafloor was initialized with a uniform 10m thick distribution. The coarse sediment had an erosion rate of 0.050 kg/m2/s; mean grain size of 0.40 mm, settling velocity of 47 mm/s, and a 0.22 N/m2 critical threshold of erosion. The fine sediment had an erosion rate of 0.025 kg/m2/s; mean grain size of 0.25 mm, settling velocity of 27 mm/s, and a 0.19 N/m2 critical threshold of erosion. Reference cited: Dowell, D. C., Alexander, C.R., James, E.P., Weygandt, S.S., Benjamin, S.G., Manikin, G.S., Blake, B.T., Brown, J.M., Olson, J.B., Hu, M., Smirnova, T.G., Ladwig, T., Kenyon, J.S., Ahmadov, R., Turner, D.D., Duda, J.D., and Alcott, T.I., 2022, The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): An Hourly Updating Convection-Allowing Forecast Model. Part I: Motivation and System Description: Wea. Forecasting, 37, 1371–1395, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0151.1. Warner, J.C., Armstrong, Brandy, He, Ruoying, and Zambon, J.B., 2010, Development of a coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system: Ocean Modelling, v. 35, issue 3, p. 230-244. Warner, J.C., Ganju, N.K., Sherwood, C.R., Kalra, T.S., Aretxabaleta, A., He, R., Zambon, J., and Kumar, N., 2019, Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System: U.S. Geological Survey Software Release, 23 April 2019, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9NQUAOW.

The Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST Warner and others, 2019; Warner and others, 2010) model was used to simulate three-dimensional hydrodynamics and waves to study salinity intrusion in the Delaware Bay estuary for 2016, 2018, 2021. Salinity intrusion in coastal systems is due in part to extreme events like drought or low-pressure storms and longer-term sea level rise, threatening economic infrastructure and ecological health. Along the eastern seaboard of the United States, approximately 13 million people rely on the water resources of the Delaware River basin, which is actively managed to suppress the salt front (or ~0.52 daily averaged psu line) through river discharge targets. However, river discharge is only part of the story. The other mechanisms controlling salinity intrusion include tidal motions on daily and spring-neap cycles, bathymetric and topographic features, and meteorological events. It is the interaction of these mechanisms that ultimately determines the distribution of salt in an estuary, particularly during periods of low discharge. The purpose of this study is to examine the mechanisms controlling the location of the salt front in the Delaware Bay estuary using a calibrated three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave and Sediment Transport (COAWST; v. 3.6) modeling system. The model was forced with tides, subtidal water levels, bulk atmospheric conditions for each year 2016, 2018, and 2021.

The Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST Warner and others, 2019; Warner and others, 2010) model was used to simulate three-dimensional hydrodynamics and waves to study salinity intrusion in the Delaware Bay estuary for 2016, 2018, 2021. Salinity intrusion in coastal systems is due in part to extreme events like drought or low-pressure storms and longer-term sea level rise, threatening economic infrastructure and ecological health. Along the eastern seaboard of the United States, approximately 13 million people rely on the water resources of the Delaware River basin, which is actively managed to suppress the salt front (or ~0.52 daily averaged psu line) through river discharge targets. However, river discharge is only part of the story. The other mechanisms controlling salinity intrusion include tidal motions on daily and spring-neap cycles, bathymetric and topographic features, and meteorological events. It is the interaction of these mechanisms that ultimately determines the distribution of salt in an estuary, particularly during periods of low discharge. The purpose of this study is to examine the mechanisms controlling the location of the salt front in the Delaware Bay estuary using a calibrated three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave and Sediment Transport (COAWST; v. 3.6) modeling system. The model was forced with tides, subtidal water levels, bulk atmospheric conditions for each year 2016, 2018, and 2021.

The Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST Warner and others, 2019; Warner and others, 2010) model was used to simulate three-dimensional hydrodynamics and waves to study salinity intrusion in the Delaware Bay estuary for 2016, 2018, 2021. Salinity intrusion in coastal systems is due in part to extreme events like drought or low-pressure storms and longer-term sea level rise, threatening economic infrastructure and ecological health. Along the eastern seaboard of the United States, approximately 13 million people rely on the water resources of the Delaware River basin, which is actively managed to suppress the salt front (or ~0.52 daily averaged psu line) through river discharge targets. However, river discharge is only part of the story. The other mechanisms controlling salinity intrusion include tidal motions on daily and spring-neap cycles, bathymetric and topographic features, and meteorological events. It is the interaction of these mechanisms that ultimately determines the distribution of salt in an estuary, particularly during periods of low discharge. The purpose of this study is to examine the mechanisms controlling the location of the salt front in the Delaware Bay estuary using a calibrated three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave and Sediment Transport (COAWST; v. 3.6) modeling system. The model was forced with tides, subtidal water levels, bulk atmospheric conditions for each year 2016, 2018, and 2021.